What it usually means
It can be exactly true. It can also be the kindest available way to say something else. Arguing with the sentence does not separate the three.
What else it can mean
- Timing. There will be a role, and it is not this quarter.
- Structure. The role above you does not exist here, and will not.
- Pretext. There is a role, and it is not going to you.
What to find out first
Whether anyone has moved up into the level above you here in the last year or two, and how. If nobody has, it is probably structure.
What the research says, and where it stops
At the US investment-banking arm of one financial company, external hires were paid around 18 percent more than internal staff promoted into the same jobs — and performed worse for their first two years.
Bidwell 2011, Administrative Science Quarterly 56(3). Limit: One firm, one industry. It speaks to whether the path is inside or outside, not to what your manager meant.
Which door
This is The Ladder — “I asked what's holding back my promotion. The answer is always vague.”